What strategies should I use for Australian rules football pools?

Australian rules football is nothing like football, neither in the purely physical sense nor in its organization. It is generally accepted (and supported by statistics) that Australian football teams play closer to their form than British football teams. For example, the range of play level between the best and the last teams in a league is quite wide, which leads to more predictability. Player injuries and transfers, and games missed (due to no-shows) are other factors that can have a major influence on a team’s performance profile. These and other statistical peculiarities have a direct effect on the strategies that will be adopted for soccer pool betting.

First of all, a basic fact about statistics: teams come and go (and change names) very often in Australian rules football. A team can disappear for a season or two and then come back together. Therefore, tracking teams in a stats database can be quite a challenge.


Analyzing the statistics shows that some leagues have much higher standards than others and in particular some leagues have much higher draw percentages than others (for example South Australia) while other leagues have much higher draw percentages. low. So if you are playing triple chance (draw games) then you bias your picks towards the leagues with higher draw rates, i.e. you forecast more draws in the top half of the coupon. Obviously, this depends on using a proper performance rating system to assess the potential results of matches, before introducing bias.

Home/Away/Drawing Runs

A peculiar aspect of Australian rules football is that the sequences can seem very strange. It’s not unusual for a team that loses at home to go on to win its next game (if it’s away). The numbers bear this out, but the explanations can be a bit hard to understand. One view I favor is that this is related to the range of standards of play within given leagues.

The opposite also has weight, since a good victory away is usually followed by a defeat at home.

For a pool staking strategy, this means sequences are important, much more so than in British pools.

Plans and Permanents

Typically, a holding strategy should use higher hedging levels than would be the norm for UK groups on a pound-for-pound basis. As some of the value coupons (1/10p/line) are not issued during the Australian season, then participation plans become important, balancing a lower guarantee level with higher coverage on higher cost coupons. (1 p/line).

Full permits, even at the high cost of any 8 out of 18, aren’t really the way to go.

draw probabilities

When narrowing down your picks, let’s say you have 30 candidate tie forecasts that you want to narrow down to 20, then you can start by eliminating those with the lowest percentage tie odds.


With over 130 teams to monitor, Australian clusters may require more work than UK clusters. Dividends are smaller, but since teams play closer to their form and there are other adjustments that can help focus on draws (by eliminating home or away bankers) then it can be a more rewarding part of the schedule. groups. After all, the serious football fan is down to earth and isn’t looking for the glory of a £1 million dividend, just steady profits from season to season.

(c) Phil Marks 2010

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