If you ask any die-hard NFL fan what a good bet is, many will give you the same answer. It’s an answer that has been passed down from one generation at NFL Bettor to the next. The answer: “Take the underdog from the house!” The logic is quite simple, the team plays at home, the players are driven by their fans… The bet is considered in folklore to be absolutely safe when it is placed on a Monday night.

There is a problem with this legend: it is not true. The Ph.D. statistician I hired to regress all sports betting outcomes over the last 15 years gave a very different answer. It is never a good idea to bet on the underdog playing at home. I don’t know the reasoning, maybe because the odds makers handicap the local underdog by a couple of points because of this powerful betting legend, but beware, betting on the local favorite is just a legend.

The results of my Ph.D. research in statistics conclusively showed that the local underdogs win against the point spread 41-47% of the time. So picking the other side against NFL underdogs at home will win 53-59% of games. I have always felt that there is truth in numbers and when you take seasons and seasons of data and they lead to clear conclusions, there is value to be gained. You only need to win 52.7% of your NFL bets to win money and here’s one that’s destroying the NFL betting crowd.