Kansas City Chiefs
The Herman Edwards regime in Kansas City begins with more questions than answers. The prolific offense will be dangerous again, but it runs into Trent Green a year older, retired pro-bowl OT Willie Roaf, and non-impact open outs. The Chiefs tried to address their suspect defense in the draft, but still sit in the bottom third of the NFL stat sheet.
Kansas City will still have a great running game behind Larry Johnson. The lean and mean Kyle Turley reportedly takes Roaf’s place as anchor and the first-team offense has looked good in limited opportunities in preseason. The Chiefs were fifth in third-down conversions, fifth in red zone offense, and were one of three NFL teams to score more touchdowns than three-and-out. Pittsburgh was one of the other two. These are numbers that will be difficult to repeat this year.
Chief’s defense has been the weakest link for a long time, mostly because of his inability to stop the run. The Chiefs were only able to create 51 3-and-outs, but were able to force 31 turnovers that stopped the bleeding a bit. Field position was key for the Chief’s in 2005, as they were 8-1 when starting with a lead.
The Chiefs were terrible on the road last year, winning only in Houston in their last five trips away from Arrowhead. Kansas City swept the hated Raiders, but they could only convert six of twenty-eight third-down chances into losses in San Diego and Denver. Your one-time invincibility at home is a thing of the past.
The lack of depth is a big problem. Going into last year, the offensive line had made 67 of 69 starts overall, almost unheard of in the NFL. Trent Green is 36 years old and has battled knee problems. Bama’s Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle are the backups. Michael Bennett was rescued from the crowded Saints backfield to form Johnson, but despite his limitless potential, he has never been able to stay healthy in Wisconsin or with the Vikes and probably won’t measure up to the rigors of an NFL season. .
The Chief’s schedule is manageable but difficult. They open at home against the Bengals and then travel to Denver, a likely 0-2 scenario heading into their early week three bye. They end up in San Diego and Oakland before hosting the Jags in the final. They draw from the NFC West and have tough non-division roadies in Arizona, Pittsburgh, St Louis and Miami.
The Chief appears to be a .500 team at best with a chance of slipping into the six-win range with a major injury to Trent Green, Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez or the offensive line. This is a team that I will try to fade where possible, particularly on the road.